The impact of the leaders debate

For me the big two big questions for the three debates collectively are 1) will they encourage more voters to engage with the campaign and 2) do they have any effect on voting behaviour?

It is far too early to tell with both, but on the latter it is likely that the Lib Dems will in all probability gain in the polls in the next few days, though this gain could easily and quickly be lost. Of more fundamental gain for the Lib Dems is likely to be the fact that it will be much harder for the big two parties to put the squeeze on the third party. Traditionally when this has happened the third force has been ignored because it is seen as not being relevant to the key debates. For at least the next week this will not be the case. I would expect Lib Dem candidates and background staff to be asked their opinion more than they might have been before the debate. Clegg's performance will not just probably influence his ratings, but also trickle down to media opportunities for the party as a whole.

The other question related to the effect is, if we assume Clegg's ratings go and stay up a lot, what affect will this have on the Lib Dem vote? The answer is probably limited and rather difficult to quantify. There have been a number of occasions when the more popular party leader did not win (1945, October 1974 and 1979). Though it is worth noting that this existed in a two-party system, in a two-and-half party system a small improvement for Clegg could have more of an effect for his party because the voters may be voting for him as the king-maker not the king. Ultimately voters vote for ther party to govern, this is not an issue with Clegg, so his performance like several of his predecessors could be important at gaining votes, amd more importantly a few seats.

It is also worth noting that if the leaders debate does lead to the Lib Dems gaining in the polls, it is quite posible that they will make their greatest gains at the expense of the Others rather than the two big parties. The Liberals had traditionally been the repository of the protest vote, but now this is less of the case and a greater range of protests exist. It is possible that Clegg's performance, if repeated over all 3 debates could actually strengthen the party as the protest vote party, and take away votes from UKIP/Greens etc as a result.

It wil be interesting to find out the viewing figures, and how many watched all 90 minutes (even a political junkie like myself was struggling at the end). But I suspect these debates will support not the hypodermic needle of the leaders reaching out individuallly to viewers and persuading them. Rather it seems to point to a two-step, or more likely multi-step flow approach. Some of those who watched will be influenced directly by what they saw, but for the majority they are likely to have their minds shaped by the verdict of others. The broadcast media and press seem to suggest that Clegg won, and this, along with debates via the Intenret and posibly clips on YouTube will shape opinions. Clegg in his opening gambit said he wanted to persuade viewers, in all likelihood this persuasion will be subtle and only part of a longer process.