Friday, 16 April 2010

A miracle or a rogue poll?

Several bloggers are currently discussing an apparent ITV/ComRes poll that shows the Lib Dems are up 14%, with the party's at Cons 36, Lib Dems 35 and Labour 24. This did not seem right, and a bit of digging around suggests that this is an unreprensentative poll of the 4,000 panel that watched the debate last night. Though Lucy Manning ITV political correspondent who may or may not have put out the figures first, clarifies the situation that the weighted figures are: Cons 35, Lab 28 LD 24. This does suggest in fact that there has been an immediate bounce in the Lib Dem polling. It will be interesting to see if as other polls come out that this is replicated, and who is losing support most. The unrepresentative poll above suggested that it was Other who was the biggest loser. Indeed, a qualitative based piece of research by IPSOS/Mori suggest that it is the Other parties who are the biggest losers. They asked 36 undecided voters both before and after the debate who they would vote for, and whilst the Lib Dem vote nearly doubled, the Labour and Conservative vote was marginally down, but that of Other dropped by two-thirds.

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