What to do with the Lib Dems?

The recent, rather bizarre, poll ratings for the Lib Dems put us into fairly uncharted territory. The last time I can remember similar ratings for the third party was in the early days of the SDP and the Alliance with the Liberals. My memory was that at some points in the 1983 campaign the Alliance did poll higher than Labour, and the final result was very close in terms of the national vote. However, in the political lifetime of most of the major players of all parties now, we have not witnessed such skewed ratings. So what should Labour and the Conservatives do now?

There is no off-the-shelf playbook the parties can use to guarantee success, to a large degree they are making this up as they go along, which makes it fraught with danger.

I would suggest that there are two components to their approach. First, what the leaders do in terms of the next two debates and their various tours. Second, what they get their attack dogs to do on their behalf.

I would strongly suggest that the leaders need to be positiive. Yes, in the debate point out the weakneses of the Lib Dems polict stance, but stress their own party's unique approach. Going for Clegg or the Lib Dems in an overt way in a TV debate format could merely reinforce the impression of tired old politics, and turn more people off the big two. The attack dogs need to go more into the detail, and highlight inconsistencies etc. However, even here there is a danger of turning off people, and it creates automatically the opportunity for the Lib Dems to have a right to reply. I very much doubt that anyone, in the parties, the media or other commentators expected the Lib Dems to be the issue of the election. And in such circumstances only the Lib Dems will be the out and out winners. The party strategists now have some interesting and tough decisions to make, and it is quite likely that they will get it wrong as get it right.

As I noted before, if Labour and the Conservatives go for Clegg/the Lib Dems they must score a knockout blow, otherwise they merely reinforce the image of the Lib Dems as a major player. That said, personally I do not expect the Lib Dems polls to stay as high, nor do I expect Clegg to be as so obviously ahead in the next two debates. However, unless we have entered an X-factor contest where polls can rollercoster up and down very quickly, they will still probably end up on May 6 much better than they expected a week ago.

The focus so far has been on the impact of Clegg's performance on the big two, but in fact it also raises serious questions for some (but not all) of the minor parties. Since the existance of more proportional electoral systems in some UK elections, such as the European Parliament, the smaller parties have gained more votes, and stand usually in the 10-15%. Very often this is a proptest vote, and it is quite likely that the Lib Dems have regained some of this disaffected vote.